Economy |
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Why in the News?
India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is projected to slow to 6.4% in the financial year 2024-25, compared to 8.2% in 2023-24, as per the first advance estimates by the National Statistics Office (NSO). This marks the lowest GDP growth in four years. Key Takeaways: Economic Growth Trends: First Half vs. Second Half Growth: Growth in the first half of FY 2024-25: 6% Expected rebound in the second half: 6.8% Real Gross Value Added (GVA): Growth rate projected at 6.4%, down from 7.2% in 2023-24. Sectors with higher growth compared to last year: Agriculture: 3.8% (up from 1.4%) Public Administration, Defence, and Other Services: 9.1% (up from 7.8%) Sectors with Declining GVA Growth: Manufacturing: Expected to halve, from 9.9% to 5.3%. Mining and Quarrying: Down to 2.9% from 7.1%. Investment and Expenditure: Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF): Growth projected at 6.4%, compared to 9% in 2023-24. Indicates a slowdown in fresh investments in the economy. Private Final Consumption: Growth expected to rise to 7.3% from 4% last year, showing increased household spending. Government Final Consumption: Projected to grow 4.1%, up from 2.5%. Sectoral Insights: Construction GVA: Growth estimated at 8.6%, compared to 9.9% in 2023-24. Trade, Hotels, Communication, and Broadcasting: Growth projected at 5.8%, down from 6.4%. Challenges Identified: Lower Fiscal Stimulus: Decline in government capital expenditure during Q2. Private sector investment remains sluggish despite favorable conditions. High Interest Rates: Stricter lending norms and tighter monetary policies affecting growth. Need for Budgetary Interventions: Budget 2025-26 expected to focus on reviving growth engines and addressing investment slowdown. Additional Observations: Advance estimates are preliminary and subject to revisions as better data becomes available. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its growth forecast to 6.6%, while the Finance Ministry expects growth to be around 6.5%. Expert Insights: Crisil Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi: Highlights "sluggish investment" and the slowdown in government spending as major contributors to deceleration. Emkay Global Financial Services: Notes that advance estimates may undergo significant revisions, given they are extrapolations of data up to November. |
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