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GDP Growth Projected to Fall to Four-Year Low at 6.4%



Why in the News?
India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is projected to slow to 6.4% in the financial year 2024-25, compared to 8.2% in 2023-24, as per the first advance estimates by the National Statistics Office (NSO).
This marks the lowest GDP growth in four years.
Key Takeaways:
Economic Growth Trends:

First Half vs. Second Half Growth:
Growth in the first half of FY 2024-25: 6%
Expected rebound in the second half: 6.8%
Real Gross Value Added (GVA):
Growth rate projected at 6.4%, down from 7.2% in 2023-24.
Sectors with higher growth compared to last year:
Agriculture: 3.8% (up from 1.4%)
Public Administration, Defence, and Other Services: 9.1% (up from 7.8%)
Sectors with Declining GVA Growth:
Manufacturing: Expected to halve, from 9.9% to 5.3%.
Mining and Quarrying: Down to 2.9% from 7.1%.
Investment and Expenditure:
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF):

Growth projected at 6.4%, compared to 9% in 2023-24.
Indicates a slowdown in fresh investments in the economy.
Private Final Consumption:
Growth expected to rise to 7.3% from 4% last year, showing increased household spending.
Government Final Consumption:
Projected to grow 4.1%, up from 2.5%.
Sectoral Insights:
Construction GVA:
Growth estimated at 8.6%, compared to 9.9% in 2023-24.
Trade, Hotels, Communication, and Broadcasting:
Growth projected at 5.8%, down from 6.4%.
Challenges Identified:
Lower Fiscal Stimulus:

Decline in government capital expenditure during Q2.
Private sector investment remains sluggish despite favorable conditions.
High Interest Rates:
Stricter lending norms and tighter monetary policies affecting growth.
Need for Budgetary Interventions:
Budget 2025-26 expected to focus on reviving growth engines and addressing investment slowdown.
Additional Observations:
Advance estimates are preliminary and subject to revisions as better data becomes available.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its growth forecast to 6.6%, while the Finance Ministry expects growth to be around 6.5%.
Expert Insights:
Crisil Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi:

Highlights "sluggish investment" and the slowdown in government spending as major contributors to deceleration.
Emkay Global Financial Services:
Notes that advance estimates may undergo significant revisions, given they are extrapolations of data up to November.


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